It depends on your situation. If you're underpaid and growth has stalled, a new job typically delivers faster salary gains. But if your company genuinely develops people and you've already earned credibility there, a promotion can move your career forward quickly — without starting over from scratch somewhere new.
Career moves aren't one-size-fits-all. LinkedIn's 2023 data shows 72% of people who switched jobs got salary bumps between 10-20%, while internal promotions averaged 5-8%. That's a real gap. Here's what complicates it: externally hired leaders fail 40% of the time in their first 18 months. Internally promoted managers succeed more often because they already know how things actually work. Someone promoted from senior analyst to manager within their own organization understands the systems, knows who the real decision-makers are, and fits the culture without wasting months figuring it out. A new job pays faster — but you're learning everything from scratch while trying to perform. Your promotion comes with things that don't show up in an offer letter: mentorship networks, credibility you've already earned, and institutional knowledge that took years to build.
Take the promotion if your direct manager respects you, leadership actually invests in developing people, and you can see a real path upward from where you're standing. Say you're a marketing coordinator with three director-level roles above you, your boss actively mentors you, and you've already outperformed your current job description. Stay. But if the same five people keep getting promoted regardless of merit, your manager dodges giving you real feedback, or you've heard promises about growth for two years with nothing to show — leave. Jump to a new job if you're underpaid compared to the market, your industry is contracting, or your work stopped challenging you six months ago. Watch out for this specific trap: you get promoted, but the title barely changes, the raise is 3%, and you have no real authority or direct reports. That's not a promotion — that's extra responsibility with a new label. A good example is a senior engineer bumped to 'lead engineer' with no budget control, no hiring input, and the same reporting structure as before. The title looks better on LinkedIn but it doesn't actually move you forward. Recognize it early and negotiate or walk.
Most people assume external jobs automatically pay more. Not true. You might land somewhere with worse benefits, less time off, or expense policies that sting. People also think promotions trap you forever at one company, but that's outdated. Take a promotion and you can still leave in two years. You'll just have "director" on your resume instead of "coordinator," which dramatically strengthens what you can command externally. Then there's this belief that new jobs are riskier because you're the unknown quantity. Flip it: you're taking on unknown risk. Unclear team dynamics, unstated expectations, and leadership styles you haven't actually tested matter way more than being the new person.
Skip it unless the title seriously improves your market value or the role teaches skills you genuinely can't get anywhere else. Before you decide, test the external market first. You might find better pay plus a stronger title at another company — which accelerates your long-term earnings far more than a modest internal bump ever would. If you do accept, negotiate hard on title, scope, and a 6-month salary review tied to specific goals.
Look at your leadership team's makeup. If 60% or more of directors and VPs were promoted internally, the company means what it says. If almost everyone came from outside, internal growth moves slowly and your promotion may hit a ceiling you didn't see coming. Then ask your manager directly: 'What happened to the last three people who got promoted here?' That one question — and how comfortably they answer it — tells you almost everything.
Yes, and most people don't push hard enough internally. You have real leverage here — your company knows exactly what replacing you costs in time, money, and lost momentum. Push for salary, title, direct reports, budget authority, and reporting structure. Frame it as: 'I want to make sure this role is structured so I can actually deliver on it' — that's specific and hard to argue with, not a threat. With outside offers you can be a bit firmer since they already decided they want you and haven't invested years in you yet.